Monsoon Rains Could Push India’s Output to Unprecedented Levels

Consistent monsoon rains could result in India’s highest-ever cotton output, potentially reaching 35 million bales. That level of production would top the country’s previous record by nearly 10% and would exceed the normal production of 30 million bales by more than 16%, according to a July 12 report in the Business Standard. Some of the increased production—approximately 2 million bales—is the result of increased cotton acreage, which is expected to top 11 million hectares.

India’s monsoon season runs from June through September, and there were concerns that an unusually dry start to the season might threaten many of the country’s crops. That would have been a devastating blow to the nation’s agriculture industry, which last year suffered through its driest season in nearly four decades. But while rainfall was 16% less than average through June, heavy rains throughout the first 10 days of July reduced the deficit to 10%, transforming concern into optimism.

International demand for Indian cotton is expected to remain strong in the short term, primarily due to an increase in demand from China (which accounts for 70% to 80% of the country’s exports) and crop failures in Pakistan. This year’s total exports are expected to reach 10 million bales.