U.S. Cotton Acreage on the Rise in 2010
February 24, 2010 Joseph W. Glauber, chief economist for the USDA, recently delivered his “Prospects for the U.S. Farm Economy in 2010.” In reference to cotton, Glauber stated:
“World cotton production (up 10.5 percent) and consumption (up 2.6 percent) are both projected to rise in 2010/11, with world consumption outpacing the increase in production due to continued economic recovery. Thus, a further drawdown in world stocks is anticipated. Global cotton ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected to be the lowest since 2003/04.
“U.S. planted area is projected at 10.5 million acres, up 15 percent from 2009, producing a crop of 16.0 million bales. Higher cotton prices relative to alternative crops, especially corn and soybeans, will boost area. The production increase from 2009 is nearly 30 percent based on a normal weather assumption.
“U.S. exports will be limited by available supplies and are forecast at 12.6 million bales, leaving ending stocks of about 3.4 million. The stocks-to-use ratio of 21 percent in 2009/10 is projected to remain about the same in 2010-11. The marketing year average price is projected at 64 cents, compared with 62 cents for 2009/10.
The USDA also estimated that China will import 10 million bales of cotton in 2010-11, up 1 million bales from this marketing year. China’s domestic cotton crop is estimated at 35 million bales this year, compared to 32 million bales in 2009.
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