U.S. Cotton Production Forecast Dips

By Jim.Robinson|November 12, 2009

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its latest cotton crop forecast on November 10. Highlights of the report include:

All Cotton production is forecast at 12.5 million 480-pound bales, down 4 percent from last month and down 2 percent from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 12.1 million 480-pound bales, down 4 percent from last month and down 2 percent from last year. Forecasted yield in the Delta region decreased due to continual wet weather. Texas producers expect lower yields due to the effects of the cool, wet weather on the late-planted crop. Upland growers in Georgia, North Carolina, and Oklahoma are expecting record high yields. The American-Pima production forecast, at 367,000 bales, was carried forward from the August 2009 forecast.

On November 1, acreage with opened bolls had advanced to 92 percent, while producers had harvested 28 percent of the crop, 17 points behind last year and 22 points, or slightly over 3 weeks, behind the average. Overall, 42 percent of the cotton crop was reported in good to excellent condition on November 1, down 5 points from both ratings on October 4 and last year. Excessive rainfall caused a significant decline in crop conditions in the Delta and Southeast where hard lock, boll rot, and sprouting were reported in numerous fields.

Ginnings totaled 2,192,600 running bales prior to November 1, compared with 4,358,450 running bales ginned prior to the same date last year and 7,071,700 running bales in 2007.