Cotton Highlights from August WASDE Report

By Jim Steadman|August 15, 2022

USDA has released its August 2022 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Here’s this month’s summary for cotton:

In this month’s 2022/23 U.S. cotton projections, beginning stocks are slightly larger, and a nearly 3-million-bale decrease in production results in lower exports, mill use, and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are larger, as estimated exports for 2021/22 are reduced 100,000 bales based on final Export Sales data and Census Bureau data through June.

NASS’s first survey-based estimate of production for 2022/23 is 12.6 million bales – the lowest since 2009/10 – with the crop reduced by projected historically high abandonment in the Southwest. Exports are projected 2 million bales lower than in July and mill use is 200,000 bales lower. Ending stocks are 600,000 bales lower, equating to 12.6% of expected use – 8 percentage points lower than in 2021/22, and the lowest stock/use ratio since 1924/25. The U.S. season-average price for upland cotton is forecast 2 cents higher this month at 97 cents/lb.

Global 2022/23 production is forecast 3.1 million bales lower this month, and consumption is 800,000 bales lower, resulting in a decrease in projected ending stocks of 1.5 million bales. In addition to the U.S. crop change, world production is reduced an additional 100,000 bales as extreme heat in Uzbekistan reduced yield prospects there. World trade is 1.8 million bales lower this month, with reductions in U.S. exports and imports by China as the largest changes. Projected imports are also lower this month for India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Turkey, and Bangladesh. Consumption in 2022/23 is projected lower than a month ago in the United States, Pakistan, Vietnam, Turkey, and Bangladesh.