The June 2017 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report has been released by USDA.
Here’s the June summary for cotton:
The U.S. cotton projections for 2017/18 show a reduction of 500,000 bales in exports from last month to 13.5 million, as higher anticipated foreign production is expected to reduce global import demand. Beginning stocks, production and domestic mill use are unchanged. Accordingly, ending stocks are now projected at 5.5 million bales which, if realized, would be a 9-year high.
The projected range for the 2017/18 marketing year average farm price of 54.0 to 74.0 cents per pound is unchanged from last month, while the price estimate for 2016/17 is reduced marginally to 68.5 cents.
The 2017/18 world cotton projections include increases in global production, consumption, and ending stocks, while trade is reduced 2%. Production is raised for Pakistan, China, and Mexico based on higher estimated planted area. Higher global consumption reflects increases for China, India, and Pakistan which are largely due to higher domestic supplies. China’s consumption is raised in both 2016/17 and 2017/18, as sales from the national reserve and steady imports suggest that consumption there is stronger than previously estimated. A reduction of nearly 800,000 bales in world imports results primarily from lower expected demand by Pakistan and Mexico. Exports are lowered for the United States, India, Brazil and others.
World ending stocks are now projected at 87.7 million bales, the lowest since 2011/12.