The May 2017 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report has been released by USDA.
Here’s the May summary for cotton:
“A projected 2017/18 U.S. cotton crop of 19.2 million bales is expected to sharply increase next season’s ending stocks. Production is anticipated to rise 12% from 2016/17, based on 12.2 million planted acres as indicated in Prospective Plantings, combined with below-average abandonment − due to relatively favorable moisture − and average yields. Domestic mill use is projected higher at 3.4 million bales, while exports are expected to fall to 14 million, as competitors’ supplies grow. Ending stocks are projected at 5 million bales, or 29% of total use. The preliminary range for the marketing year average price received by producers is 54.0 to 74.0 cents per pound.
“For 2016/17, U.S. cotton production is reduced marginally from last month. The export forecast is increased to 14.5 million bales, reflecting higher-than-anticipated export sales to date, with ending stocks lowered accordingly.
“The world 2017/18 cotton projections show a decline in stocks of 2.4 million bales, as consumption exceeds production for the third consecutive season. Global production is expected to rise nearly 7%, despite marginally lower average yields, as area rebounds to its highest level in three years. Production is forecast to rise in all major producing countries, led by the United States (2.0 million bales higher) and India (1.5 million bales higher). Global consumption is projected to rise 2.3%, as a growing world economy drives mill use higher around the world. Projected world trade is raised slightly from 2016/17, as import-oriented consumers such as Vietnam and Bangladesh are accounting for a larger share of world consumption.
“Ending stocks are projected at 87.1 million bales, 75% of world consumption. Falling China stocks exceed the projected global decline, while stocks outside of China rise for the second consecutive year. Despite the projected decrease, China stocks are still equivalent to more than 100% of China’s total disappearance.
“For 2016/17, world production is reduced marginally from last month, while consumption is raised slightly. Ending stocks lowered 1.4 million bales. Consumption and imports are slightly higher in China, and ending stocks are lower in India, the United States, and China.”