facebook_pixel

Shurley on Cotton: August Numbers Likely Neutral to Bearish

By Dr. Don Shurley

The 2014 US cotton crop has been revised upward by one million bales from the July estimate. The August USDA crop production and supply/demand numbers released August 12 are the first estimates of the season based on an actual producer survey.

The July estimate was 16.5 million bales – based on estimated acreage abandonment of 15 percent and yield of 816 lbs/acre. These first produced-based numbers show abandonment of only 10 percent and a yield of 820 lbs/acre. The crop is forecast at 17.5 million bales – one million bales higher than the July estimate.

Abandonment is estimated at only 16 percent for Texas, and yield forecast at 632 lbs/acre. Yields appear strong just about everywhere. Much of the Mid-South looks to be over two bales per acre, and the Southeast also looks good, with yields approaching 900 lbs/acre or more.

The one million bale increase in the U.S. crop is offset somewhat by a half million bale increase in expected U.S. crop exports for 2014/15. This likely reflects the increase in production and available supply and perhaps the impact of the lower tier of prices we are experiencing. U.S. ending stocks are still expected to rise three million bales from last season.

Looking at the World and foreign numbers, production overall is changed very little other than in the U.S. The China crop estimate is unchanged, the Australia and Brazil crops are lowered, and the India crop is increased. World cotton use is increased 1.3 million bales from the July estimate. World ending stocks are revised downward by 600,000 bales.

The August numbers are best described as a mixed bag. Increase in the U.S. crop is bearish, but this may have been anticipated and already largely factored in to the current level of prices. Certainly, however, there is fear this could push prices even lower. But, the increase in U.S. exports is good news, and the increase in World Use is good news. Ending stocks did not increase, and that is good news.

At this point (with prices having lost 12 cents since mid-June), we take anything positive we can find. But in reality, aside from a major supply shock somewhere, prices likely have a rough road ahead. The U.S. crop looks promising, but the World and foreign situation is less known. Longer-term (into winter and spring 2015), the outlook will depend on the eventual U.S. and World supply and trends in demand (U.S. exports).

 

Shurley is Professor Emeritus of Cotton Economics, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Georgia

Topics: ,

Leave a Reply

Market Analysis Stories
Market Analysis

With Market Oversold, Is Bullish Return Near?

July 14, 2017

The cotton invert continues, as both the U.S. and Australian crops are oversold.

Market Analysis

Rain in India, U.S. Keeps Pressure on Prices

July 7, 2017

Beneficial rains in the U.S. and India kept pressure on cotton prices, as the December futures contract settled the past week unchanged.

Market Analysis

Bulls Push Market on Heels of USDA Planting Report

July 5, 2017

Smaller than expected U.S. cotton plantings – and the potential smaller crop – caught the bulls’ attention in the market.

Market Analysis

Market Catching Its Breath After 10-Day Slide

June 23, 2017

After an unprecedented 10-day drop in prices, the market is trying to catch its breath.

Market Analysis

Mother Nature, Not Bulls, Managing the Market

June 16, 2017

Cotton prices took a big hit, and bullish signals are hard to find. Mother Nature is now in charge.

Market Analysis

Shurley: June Report Sends Mixed Signals

June 15, 2017

USDA’s June WASDE report contained some good news and some bad news. Overall, Dr. Don Shurley considers the report somewhat bearish.

Market Analysis

Report Softens Prices, Consumption Concerns Rise

June 9, 2017

USDA’s June WASDE report sent old crop and new crop prices lower at week’s end, as manmade fibers take aim at cotton.

Around The Gin
Product News

Protect Cotton Potential from Weeds, Worms and Diseases

July 12, 2017

Southeast cotton producers say latest technologies from PhytoGen help protect yield and quality.

Product News

Monsanto “Troubled” by Arkansas Dicamba Decision

June 26, 2017

Monsanto has weighed in on the Arkansas Plant Board’s proposed ban of dicamba use in the state.

Product News

Drexel Adds Two Regional Sales Reps

June 16, 2017

Kyle Herring and David Davis have joined Drexel Chemical Company as regional sales representatives.

Product News

Dow AgroSciences Launching Enlist Corn in 2018

June 16, 2017

Following the launch of Enlist cotton, Dow AgroSciences will make Enlist corn commercially available for 2018 after receiving Chinese import approvals.

Product News

Transform Earns Section 18 Exemptions for Cotton, Sorghum

May 4, 2017

Transform WG insecticide has received Section 18 emergency use exemptions for use in cotton and sorghum in select states for the 2017 production season.

Product News

EPA Approves Monsanto’s NemaStrike Technology

May 2, 2017

The EPA has issued registration for tioxazafen, a new nematicide from Monsanto that will be branded as NemaStrike Technology for nematode control and yield protection in cotton, corn and soybeans.

Product News

Indigo Partners Launched for In-Field Technology Testing

April 25, 2017

Indigo is launching Indigo Partners, a collaboration of 25 U.S. growers and agronomic experts to test agricultural technologies – including Indigo’s microbial seed treatments – during 2017.

Product News

UPI Adds New Herbicide Products

April 14, 2017

UPI has added two new herbicides to its portfolio of high quality crop protection products for the U.S.

Latest News
Market Analysis

With Market Oversold, Is Bullish Return Near?

July 14, 2017

The cotton invert continues, as both the U.S. and Australian crops are oversold.

Market Analysis

Shurley: Prices Continue to Flounder in Lower Range

July 14, 2017

The July USDA crop production and supply and demand estimates report was not bad, but prices continue to show no improvement.

Market Analysis

Rain in India, U.S. Keeps Pressure on Prices

July 7, 2017

Beneficial rains in the U.S. and India kept pressure on cotton prices, as the December futures contract settled the past week unchanged.

Market Analysis

Shurley on Cotton: Where Did the Acres Go?

July 6, 2017

Dr. Don Shurley says the recent USDA Planted Acreage report did not deliver as expected, making times a bit confusing for producers looking to manage risk.

Market Analysis

Bulls Push Market on Heels of USDA Planting Report

July 5, 2017

Smaller than expected U.S. cotton plantings – and the potential smaller crop – caught the bulls’ attention in the market.

Market Analysis

Market Catching Its Breath After 10-Day Slide

June 23, 2017

After an unprecedented 10-day drop in prices, the market is trying to catch its breath.

Market Analysis

Mother Nature, Not Bulls, Managing the Market

June 16, 2017

Cotton prices took a big hit, and bullish signals are hard to find. Mother Nature is now in charge.

Market Analysis

Shurley: June Report Sends Mixed Signals

June 15, 2017

USDA’s June WASDE report contained some good news and some bad news. Overall, Dr. Don Shurley considers the report somewhat bearish.

Market Analysis

Report Softens Prices, Consumption Concerns Rise

June 9, 2017

USDA’s June WASDE report sent old crop and new crop prices lower at week’s end, as manmade fibers take aim at cotton.

Market Analysis

Sleepy Market Watching U.S. Crop Progress

June 3, 2017

The cotton market snoozed all week, watching crop development and holding solid at 72-73 cents for new crop December.

Market Analysis

Shurley: Prices Weaker but Remain Above Support

May 31, 2017

As growers complete planting and move fully into the growing season, evaluating the outlook and making price risk management decisions will be crucial.

Market Analysis

Market Settling In as Old Crop Settles Out

May 31, 2017

On-call sales versus purchases are coming in line. Old crop July is done, and the open interest contract leader is now December.

Market Analysis

Fluctuations and Cancellations Create Interesting Week

May 22, 2017

Despite price fluctuations and export sales cancellations over the past week, the cotton market hangs tough as U.S. planting continues.

Market Analysis

Shurley: Is This the Wake-Up Call We’ve Been Expecting?

May 15, 2017

Market movement in the past few weeks may be the wake-up call the industry has been expecting.

Market Analysis

Market Holding, but Lock in Prices Now

May 15, 2017

Cotton’s recent price surge is likely not done yet. But, growers who have not priced their 2017 crop should do so soon before the market softens.