NCC Survey Shows 12.0 Million Acres of Cotton in 2022
February 14, 2022 U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 12.0 million cotton acres this spring, up 7.3% from 2021, according to the National Cotton Council’s 41st Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey.
Upland cotton intentions are 11.9 million acres, up 7.1% from 2021, while extra-long staple (ELS) intentions of 158,000 acres represent a 24.8% increase.
The detailed survey results were revealed during the 2022 National Cotton Council Annual Meeting.
Dr. Jody Campiche, NCC Vice President, Economics & Policy Analysis, said, “Planted acreage is just one of the factors that will determine supplies of cotton and cottonseed. Ultimately, weather and agronomic conditions are among the factors that play a significant role in determining crop size.”
Using the 10-year average abandonment rate for each state, Cotton Belt harvested area totals 9.8 million acres for 2022 with a U.S. abandonment rate of 18.9%. Using the five-year average state-level yield per harvested acre generates a cotton crop of 17.3 million bales – 16.8 million upland bales and 438,000 ELS bales.
The NCC survey questionnaire, mailed in mid-December 2021 to producers across the 17-state Cotton Belt, asked producers for the number of acres devoted to cotton and other crops in 2021 and the acres planned for the coming season. Survey responses were collected through mid-January.
“History has shown that U.S. farmers respond to relative prices when making planting decisions,” noted Campiche. “Relative to the average futures prices during the first quarter of 2021, prices of all commodities are trading significantly higher. However, input costs are also much higher than this time last year.”
Southeast respondents indicate a 3.7% increase in cotton acreage to 2.4 million acres. Increases are indicated for five of the region’s states: Alabama (425,000 acres, up 5.0%), Georgia (1.2 million acres, up 1.3%), North Carolina (405,000 acres, up 8.0%), South Carolina (231,000 acres, up 10%), and Virginia (79,000 acres, up 4.7%). According to the survey responses, the expected increase in cotton acres is due to a decline in corn acres and peanut acres to a lesser extent. Florida is the only state in the region showing a decrease in acres (87,000 acres, down 4%) as producers indicate a shift to soybeans.
Mid-South growers intend to plant 1.9 million acres, an increase of 14.6% from the previous year. Across the region, all states intend to increase cotton acreage: Arkansas (555,000 acres, up 15.7%), Louisiana (166,000 acres, up 51.2%), Mississippi (479,000 acres, up 6.5%), Missouri (334,000 acres, up 5.9%), and Tennessee (333,000 acres, up 21.1%). In all states, survey responses suggest that cotton is increasing acres at the expense of corn.
Southwest growers intend to increase cotton acreage by 7.0% percent to 7.4 million acres. Each of the three states show planned increases: Kansas (127,000 acres, up 15.2%), Oklahoma (523,000 acres, up 5.6%), and Texas (6.8 million acres, up 6.9%). Responses indicate a shift from sorghum to cotton, with Texas producers also planting less wheat.
With intentions of 156,000 acres, producers in the West expect to plant 14.1% fewer acres of upland cotton: Arizona (93,000 acres, down 22.7%), California (24,000 acres, down 7.7%), and New Mexico (40,000 acres, up 10.0%). Water constraints continue to affect planting decisions in Arizona and California.
ELS acreage is expected to increase by 24.8% in 2022 to 158,000 acres, likely driven by the all-time highs being seen in ELS cotton prices. Respondents indicated ELS growth in all states: California (115,000 acres, up 30.4%), Arizona (10,000 acres, up 5.9%), New Mexico (14,000 acres, up 11.0%), and Texas (20,000 acres, up 16.3%).
Campiche cautioned NCC delegates that the expectations are a snapshot of intentions based on market conditions at survey time with actual plantings influenced by changing market conditions and weather. Producers will continue to monitor changes in commodity prices and input costs before finalizing their 2022 acreage decisions.
Although cotton prices are higher than in recent years, higher input prices and supply chain disruptions have resulted in significant increases in production costs for 2022. As a result, many producers continue to face difficult economic conditions heading into 2022.
Based on information provided by the National Cotton Council
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