Shurley: USDA Crop Adjustments Could Be Encouraging for Cotton
July 13, 2026 The latest USDA numbers could help to add some support to the market. No promises and the outlook is uncertain, but the current numbers could be viewed as encouraging.
First of all, some production, supply and demand for the soon-to-end 2025 crop marketing year were revised. That’s important because it changes the starting position/situation for the new 2026 crop year.
▪ World production for 2025 was revised down by 750,000 bales. The Brazilian crop was reduced by 750,000 bales.
▪ World demand/Use for the 2025 crop year was revised down just slightly—by 160,000 bales. Use for Pakistan was lowered; Use for Vietnam was increased.
▪ While I don’t like to see Use lowered (especially to less than 120 million bales), it’s not much, and it means more growth for 2026.
The July numbers are the first for 2026 based on the June 30 USDA Acreage report. This will be revised going forward based on more available data and changes in crop conditions.
▪ 2026 US acres planted are estimated at 9.85 million acres, acres harvested at 76.5%, and yield at 872 lbs/acre.
▪ This compares to 84% harvested (16% abandonment) last year and 852 lbs/acre.
▪ So, 2026 production is currently projected to be 200,000 bales less than last year despite the increase in acres planted.
▪ Exports are currently pegged at 12.3 million bales—100,000 bales more than last year.
▪ World demand/Use is projected to increase 2 million bales. This may not sound like much in the grand scheme of things, but this would be the highest Use since 2020.
▪ With improving demand, Ending Stocks would tighten because production is expected to drop by over 4 ½ million bales compared to last year.
▪ 2026 production is forecast to decline in several countries, including China and Brazil.
US Mill Use for the 2026 crop year is forecast to increase slightly by 50,000 bales. So, we are not expecting to yet see too early impacts of BACA and the Great American Cotton Plan.
Crop conditions will be watched closely. The currently projected abandonment of 23% is larger than last year, but yield is projected to be 20 lbs/acre higher than last year. Prices (Dec futures) have jumped over 4 cents this week. We are now back over 80. We’ll have to see if we can maintain this level.
Prices have moved on a combination of weakening crop conditions, increased weather concerns, the report numbers we have talked about, and support/push in the form of higher prices for other commodities.
As of July 5th, the crop was 16% poor or very poor. Texas was 23% poor or very poor, Tennessee 16%, South Carolina 14%, Georgia 9%.
Recent export sales and shipments have slowed compared to prior weeks. As of July 2, shipments total 10.92 million bales with 4 weeks’ reporting left in the 2025 marketing year. Shipments for the remainder of the marketing year must average 320,000 bales per week to meet USDA’s projection for the year.
The market seems not overly concerned—seems focused on these other factors. The 80-to 81-cent hurdle is a test.
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