Shurley: USDA Acres Report Boosts US Crop, But Not By Much
July 2, 2026 The numbers say growers will plant 210,000 acres more than they said they intended to plant back in March. USDA’s Acreage report is the first estimate of actual acres planted. If realized, acreage will be up over half a million acres, or 6% higher than last year.
Today’s estimate of acres planted is higher than earlier “intentions” in only eight of 17 states. That’s a little surprising to me given the run-up that cotton price has made since back in April. But price is certainly only one factor in the acreage decision.
At this point, an increase in acres for 2026 is not a surprise. Planting intentions 3 months ago hinted to that. I think the unknown was, especially given the improvement in price, how much higher would today’s number be compared to what farmers told us back in March.
Frankly, 210,000 acres above March intentions is not much. But notice, compared to March, 9 states are now saying equal to or less—including Texas. The above intentions in Texas would easily put US acreage above 10 million. There are a lot of moving parts—prices, marketing opportunities, costs, crop rotation, weather, etc.
The latest USDA crop progress and condition report (as of 6/28) shows the crop planting and development to be pretty much on the norm. Overall, the crop is rated 16% poor to very poor and 48% good to excellent. This compares to 13% and 53% respectively for the previous week. Texas is rated 25% poor to very poor.
USDA’s monthly US and World supply/demand estimates for July will be out on the 10th. US estimates will use this 9.85 million acres planted figure and abandonment and yield based on historical averages, but adjusted for current conditions.
The acreage numbers didn’t seem to faze the market—at least not yet. Like I said, an increase in acres should have been and likely was already expected and factored in. We’ll see. Prices (Dec futures) seem to be acting “comfortable” and moving mostly sideways and searching for direction.
Prices are likely to range mostly between 75 and 79 cents. But, on an expected large US crop or weak demand news, weakness could take us to 73 cents. Crop concerns and/or good demand news could take us to 82-83 or better.
Everyone wants a return to 85 cents or better. Is that possible? Yes. Did you get some of this already? If yes, how much and how do you feel? If no, are you going to wait and pass up something less? For how long?
Price can also go to 73. That will hurt. Do you risk 73 while holding and hoping for 85?
Let’s think together. How can you protect yourself? If price goes to 85 again, you darn sure want some of that or as much of it as you can. And, likewise, you want to avoid the risk of 73 on as much of the crop as you can.
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