One for the Record Books
August 1, 2011 This year certainly has been one for the record books … and not in a good way.
Cotton producers in the Texas High Plains and surrounding areas started their 2011 crop like any other with a positive outlook and hope for a bountiful crop, even with very short pre-plant moisture. Prices were good, and this year looked to be an opportunity to turn a decent profit.
As they prepared to plant, these producers knew that the pre-plant moisture was short after a dry winter, but held out hope that situation would turn around. Irrigated producers turned on the irrigation to prepare the ground for planting and got their crop off to the best start they could. The dryland producers waited as long as they could, finally taking that last leap of faith and planting into completely dry soil.
These producers had no idea that this year would turn into one of the most wretched in decades. The irrigated producers had no clue that almost every drop of water they applied to their plants would seemingly evaporate from the relentless Texas heat and high winds. The dryland producers couldn’t foresee that their efforts would go completely fruitless, leaving their seed essentially in bone-dry storage underground.
Many have said, “I’ve seen hot years, dry years, and windy years, but never all three at once.” This is absolutely true. The wind typically does blow on the High Plains during the start of the growing season, beginning about the first of March through the end of April. But not 2011. This year, producers watched as the 30 mph-plus winds caused blowing sand to singe the already barely surviving cotton plants for what seemed like days on end through the end of June.
100% Abandonment on Dryland Acres
Although the official numbers haven’t been released, it is almost a given that we’ll have a 100% abandonment rate on the dryland crop for the first time in Plains Cotton Growers’ 55-year history. That means our overall abandonment rate so far is around 50%, or about 2 million acres. These numbers undoubtedly will continue to climb as producers begin making decisions on their irrigated crop as to whether they will be able to take them to harvest.
In early August, 99% of the entire state of Texas is in “exceptional” drought. More than 11 inches of rain typically falls in Lubbock between January and August. The grand total so far? A little more than an inch. Midland has gone more than 300 days without rain. Some producers in Yoakum County, near the New Mexico line, haven’t seen rain since July 2010.
However, even in the midst of all of this negativity, we must look to the positive side for some things. Good farm policy provides the safety net and allows agriculture to stay viable. A critical part of that safety net is crop insurance that has enabled growers to stay afloat. Add to that the cottonseed endorsement that Plains Cotton Growers led the charge to implement, and producers will be able to recover a good percentage of their inputs. Those producers who can hold on can hopefully take advantage of some good prices.
But the real losses are still to come for the rest of the cotton industry chain. Gins are slashing projections by as much as 70%, with some not opening for business in 2011, meaning a cut in jobs. Our warehouses, cottonseed oil mills and merchants will feel the pinch as well, not to mention the agribusinesses such as implement, fertilizer and chemical dealers who already are dealing with decreased activity. Unfortunately, as producers don’t need their services on a crop that in many cases is nonexistent.
We still believe and know that you must be an optimist to be in this business. Right now it’s tough, but we’re looking forward to better times, when the entire cotton industry will be profitable again. We know that the rain will fall eventually. We just have to keep the faith, doing the absolute best we can.
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