Cleveland: Cotton Continued to Test 80 Cents
June 24, 2026 Cotton traded a short week as the market closure on Friday was in favor of the Juneteenth holiday. Yet, recent trading was marked by a week-long plus period of rising prices. Finally, the market was able to rise into the upper level of the trading zone.
While the 80-cent mark has remained elusive, prices have risen to within a few points of that mark, 79.84, and settled the week at 79.67. Thus, the market sits just below the 50-day moving average, giving the bulls some hope for higher prices. There is price resistance at 81 cents and more at 82, but likely neither of those two levels will be breached without major detrimental crop news.
Dry spots are widespread, but in total, the crop is progressing very well and is rapidly making up ground after its slow start. The July contract goes first notice in the coming week and is effectively liquidated. Additionally, given the bulk of certificated stocks, as well as nearly full carry in the market, the delivery period will go very smoothly and without fanfare.
As the growing season progresses, the December futures contract should find excellent support at 74 cents. That failing the 72-cent mark also offers support. Hopefully, we can get through the new marketing year, scheduled to start in just over five weeks, without having to face a price in the 60s.
Export sales continue to be slightly stronger than expected, primarily because mills have been tempted to purchase old crop with the contract at 75-76 cents. Now that prices are slightly higher, it will be difficult to maintain that pace. On call sales and purchases have moved to equilibrium as was expected, and that once bullish indicator has turned neutral with a slight hint of bearishness. However, such bearishness is very mild and can be easily overturned. Net sales of Upland for the week ending June 11 were 177,100 bales. While this pace was off 15% from the prior week, it was still 5% higher than the prior 4-week average. Primary buyers included Pakistan, India, Vietnam, and China.
Exports of Upland totaled 250,964 bales. Thus, it is likely that the U.S. will reach the USDA export target of 12. 2 million bales, 200,000 bales more than the target of just one month ago. Export sales should be expected to slow on a seasonal basis, and if futures remain above 76 cents.
The tail end of plantings across the U.S, mostly in the Rolling Plains, in those areas that received moisture, will likely continue for another week and will be a boost above the USDA’s June 30 plantings report. We continue to judge 79-80 cents, basis December, as an opportunity to price the 2026 crop.
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