Cotton Highlights from January WASDE Report

USDA has released its first World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for 2022. Here’s the January summary for cotton:

U.S. 2021/22 cotton ending stocks are projected lower this month with lower production and a slight increase in domestic consumption more than offsetting lower exports. Production is 660,000 bales lower at 17.6 million bales – largely due to revised Texas yields – and U.S. mill use is 50,000 bales higher at 2.55 million bales, based on faster than expected gains through November. Exports are reduced with a lower U.S. crop, continuing logistical issues in the United States and elsewhere, and a decline in projected world trade. Exports are reduced 500,000 bales to 15.0 million, and 2021/22 ending stocks are 200,000 bales lower relative to last month, at 3.2 million bales or 18% of use. The projected upland season-average price received by U.S. farmers is unchanged this month at 90 cents per pound.

Changes in the global 2021/22 balance sheet are relatively small this month, led by a 608,000-bale reduction in world production. Projected world production is reduced as lower U.S. production and a 500,000-bale decline in India’s crop more than offsets increases for China, Australia, and Pakistan. The 2021/22 world cotton trade forecast is 385,000 bales lower this month. A 500,000-bale decline in China’s expected imports more than offsets a 200,000-bale increase for Pakistan, and smaller changes elsewhere. Exports are projected lower for the United States and Burkina Faso, but higher for Australia and smaller Franc Zone exporters. The 2021/22 global consumption forecast is virtually unchanged as a 500,000-bale decline in China’s cotton use is offset by gains for India, Mexico, and Pakistan. Global ending stocks for 2021/22 are down 726,000 bales this month at 85.0 million bales – 3.4 million bales lower than in 2020/21.