Facing a Difficult November

It’s shaping up to be a very difficult November for a very good chair of the Senate Ag Committee. At least that’s the way I see it.

Senator Blanche Lincoln came out of Arkansas’ June 9 Democratic primary with the slimmest of victories ― 52%-48% ― over Lt. Governor Bill Halter. It shouldn’t have been that close. Should it?

Lincoln did show some strength, however, overcoming a tidal wave of money streaming into the state from labor unions claiming she was too conservative. Over the years, Lincoln has worn the “Blue Dog” badge of conservatism with distinction. But ironically, she drew the ire ― no, rage ― from the right after she cast the 60th vote for Obamacare, sending it to the floor for debate last winter. After it ultimately passed into law, to many, the vote became her red badge of liberalism.

“I think this race became bigger than me and bigger than Bill Halter,” said Lincoln in victory. So true. It was as big as Bill Clinton (along with a powerful ag vote, I hasten to add), who helped snatch victory from the jaws of defeat with his endorsement. Bill Clinton still wields a big stick in Arkansas.

But has Clinton’s support met its match? Or has Lincoln’s support become so tepid that she can’t pull herself from the fire? The polls suggest either or both.

The latest Rasmussen poll released on June 17 has Lincoln running nearly two-to-one behind Republican Congressman John Boozman, 61%-32%. That leaves 7%, but 4% of those prefer someone else. So she has only 3% to work with. Lincoln, Clinton, Frank Broyles, Lance Alworth and Arkansas’ “40-Minutes-of-Hell” National Championship basketball team can’t make that reach. She has to change hearts and minds.

Lincoln now says she “gets” the anti-Washington sentiment. She better, because calling Obama to Arkansas on her behalf won’t help this time, even though she graciously accepted his endorsement versus Halter. But can she run with Obama in June, then away from him in November? She sort of has to ― the polls say this, not me. Rasmussen has Obama’s “strongly oppose” numbers at 44%, and “strongly approve” at only 29%. Obama’s overall approval rating is at an all-time low of just over 40%. Would you call him to a state that went 60%-40% for John McCain? She could against Halter; she can’t against Boozman.

So how can Lincoln beat Boozman? First, she has to remind the state that she has been a successful chair of the Ag Committee, and she’ll need Bill Clinton to be at the top of his game. Will that be enough? If not, what next? Anything could happen, I guess.

Boozman could get caught wearing polyester panties. Or yachting with Tony Hayward. Or rustling hogs with Houston Nutt.
Otherwise, it’s not going to be a pretty November.